![]() ![]() Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area.The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher! Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!Ītlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. It, and other properties along these islands, will be the first to receive the winds and surge.The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.Ī tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. What’s difficult to see in the image here is that Mar-a-Lago is actually located on a barrier island separated from the mainland by a half-mile channel. Projected course of Dorian showing location of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property Should you have no other choice but to stay in the region, check out your local shelter options now. It’s too early to accurately forecast storm surge along the Florida coast or map areas of potential flooding from surge or projected rainfall. But it’s not too early to repeat the advice that, should you be in the region and have the opportunity to leave, you should do so as soon as possible. The storm’s course represents a threat to some of Florida’s most iconic landmarks-from Disneyland to Kennedy Space Center-and also means that it will be threatening an extensive section of the coast, much of it containing a large percentage of construction that pre-dates the post-Hurricane Andrew construction guidelines. The models suggest a storm that’s going to grow, move west, and strike Florida mid-peninsula before turning north. But both of those possibilities seem increasingly unlikely as of Friday morning. Or cross directly over southern Florida and enter the Gulf. ![]() There is still the chance that Dorian could arc to the north and skirt the coast completely. The fact that the storm is expected to take a full 24 hours to go from Freeport to West Palm Beach is a measure of just how it is creeping toward the coast. Both of those things make it more easily perturbed. Also, the storm is currently quite small in extent, if not in force. That’s in part because it’s moving so slowly, progressing to the west-northwest at just 12 mph. Neither the time nor the direction of Dorian is quite as nailed down as they are for most storms at this point. Tropical storm force winds can be expected to arrive in Florida on Sunday morning along with high, dangerous swells and rip tides. Those areas in the course of the storm can expect 12 inches or more. The National Hurricane Center is calling for rainfall totals exceeding 6 inches for all of eastern Florida above Miami. However, that crossing is expected to scrub only about 10 mph from the storm before it smacks into Florida overnight, bringing intense rain and a potentially large storm surge. Which is pretty extreme for islands where 15 feet is practically a mountain. The first place genuinely under the gun isn’t Florida, but the Bahamas, with Freeport directly in the middle of current projections and set to receive the storm as a solid Category 4 on Monday morning. The timing and direction of the storm’s arrival are leading to projections of a storm surge 10-15 feet greater than normal high tides. ![]()
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